Job Market Update – Oct 2009

The “Lace Plant” Economy?

The job market in the UK is fragile, with Thresher’s announcing the potential for 3,000 jobs to go as it moves into administration.  Moreover, a report for Centre for Cities predicts a rise in public sector job losses, reaching 290,000 by 2014.  This process is already underway with job losses announced in the Land Registry and evidence that fixed term contracts are not being renewed.  Finally, growth remained negative this last quarter, which is forcing the BoE to consider increasing Quantitative Easing by £50-75Bn to pump yet more money into the Economy – if the Banks actually pass this on to the private sector economy that is.

However, other news suggests that the job market is picking up.  Banking and financial services recruitment has been accelerating.  Several recruitment companies have been swamped with demand as banks finally invest in new talent amid super-profits in their investment banking arms.  No doubt such a boom is helped by the growth seen across the world, particularly in the US where there was over 3% growth in GDP.  Even retailers are now buoyant about economic prospects as fearful consumers gain confidence in their own job security with slower rises in unemployment.  Perhaps this year people will really try to celebrate Xmas.  Although if they do, they seem set to celebrate in the UK as airlines continue to struggle with falling demand and high oil prices.

Economic Growth Prospects: The Madagascan Lace Plant

Economic Growth Prospects: The Madagascan Lace Plant

Overall, what does the future bring?  Cautious optimism is the view of this blog.  There are green shoots, but  sadly they belong to the  Madagascan lace plant – one of the slowest growing plants on the planet and one which is notoriously difficult to cultivate. As such, there will continue to be job losses and the graduate population will continue to feel pain for a while yet.  But we might be seeing some hope.   Let’s hope the economists running the economy are sophisticated horticulturists!

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